Greg Doering, Kansas Farm Bureau
It’s hard to imagine waking up and going to work on payday only to find you have less money than you started with at the beginning of the pay period. That’s the reality many farmers are facing as fall harvest enters full swing in Kansas. Almost every acre of corn and soybeans across the state is expected to cost more to plant, grow and harvest than farmers will receive when they sell their crops.
Revenue from wheat, soybeans and corn is forecasted to decline by 12, nine and six percent, respectively, in 2025. It will be the third year in a row with declining receipts for those commodities while expenses have remained the same or risen.
Buying at retail, selling at wholesale and paying the freight both ways has always made farming a tough business, but this year is a good example of why farmers do what they do for reasons other than money. Good weather and good yields don’t make up for low prices, and most producers will end up selling their crops at a loss if conditions don’t change in a hurry.
Grain is a global commodity, and buyers have more options today than they did 10 or 20 years ago thanks to competition in South America. That’s made it far easier for China to use U.S. farmers as leverage in trade negotiations. China hasn’t purchased a single order of soybeans from the U.S. to date this year, despite representing more than half of U.S. soy exports in 2024.
Domestically, the picture isn’t much better. Livestock and grain markets rarely move in the same direction. High grain prices make each additional pound of beef more expensive in the feedlot, and the inverse is true. The drought-induced slimming of the cattle herd means there’s fewer mouths to feed, putting additional downward pressure on grain prices while beef is near record levels.
The slowdown in the crop economy will show up beyond the fields. There will be fewer cups of coffee at the local café. Fewer remodeling supplies sold at the hardware store. Fewer loan originations at the bank. Fewer pickups bought at the local dealership. School bond issues to invest in the next generation will face uphill battles at the ballot box this year in farm country.
This downturn is discouraging but not quite dire. Farmers will use a variety of tools to make it through. Grain will go into storage in hopes prices are better tomorrow. Balance sheets were healthy entering this current slump and land values are holding on, for now. That equity will be used to buy time.
Hopefully there’s good news on the trade front soon that will lift prices. It’s also likely the estimates of strong yields aren’t fully realized once harvest is further along, reducing the spread between an abundant supply and scarce demand.
There’s always hope the markets will turn before harvest ends. Or they’ll rally over the winter to more than cover the cost of storing grain. Or next year will be better. It’s an eternal mindset that gets tested over and over again.
Most have made it through rough spots like these before and come out strong because of it. Looking back, it won’t seem as bad as it feels right now. There’s no shame in admitting to being scared or stressed. And help is available if you’re struggling. Visit www.kfb.org/ruralmindsmatter for a list of resources or call 988 if you’re experiencing a crisis.
Believe better times are ahead. And above all, take care of yourself and those around you.
“Insight” is a weekly column published by Kansas Farm Bureau, the state’s largest farm organization whose mission is to strengthen agriculture and the lives of Kansans through advocacy, education and service.
